I read that young Polish women do not like young Ukrainian women, because they see them as competition on the matrimonial market. (Well seriously do you want that husband who is looking for a Ukrainian woman to do laundry and cooking? Anyway, Ukrainian women don’t want for laundry and cooking at all!)
I read that the young are more likely than the old to vote for nationalists.
I’m very surprised, because migration will be the leading topic of the future – no one is to be more affected by migration than young people. Young people! Migration policy – it is about you! She needs you the most.
As I look at you, I can see that you want to have a good life and comfort. You would like your life to be pleasant, meaningful and nice. And I don’t blame you – I myself am fulfilling my dreams in my old age and it’s great. Good life is good! I see that you want to develop, shape your personality, take care of life harmony, have freedom and liberty. I see that you want to work less, travel more, be masters and ladies of your fate.
However, if things globally do not change, your realities will drastically change. Does anyone tell you this? On your right-wing?
Polish society is shrinking. People are getting fewer and fewer. In 2030 there will be one million Poles less than today, in 2050 there will be almost five million less. At the same time, the number of elderly people, over 65, is growing and is likely to continue to grow. I’m not making this up, these are GUS (Polish state central statistical office) figures.
What does this mean?
It means that there will be a smaller internal market. Less demand for various goods. At the same time – fewer people to do the work. You will have fewer classmates, and your children will have even fewer (and maybe they will have a farther way to go to school). Those who complain about transportation exclusion nowadays will have even fewer buses and trains – because there will be fewer people to transport. Sleepy towns will get sleepier. Villages will become even more depopulated. There will be fewer movie theaters. Fewer coffee shops. Fewer low-cost airlines and fewer last-minute deals.
It also means you’ll have to make money for me (I’ll just reach retirement age in 2030, and I’ll be 80 in 2050, and I won’t be working – unless I become pope or president, none of which seems likely). There will be more and more people like me, and fewer and fewer young people. And you will still have to support your own children, if you choose to. If you choose not to, you will have to earn extra for your own pampers for 2070. Already in 2050 your projected pension is less than 30 percent of your current earnings (that’s how Social Security calculates). Will you manage?
The migrants have added more than 10 billion zlotys to the Polish budget over the past year and a half. In all the anti-migrant hate, remember that these people work, earn money, generate demand. For many that’s why they come here in the first place: to earn and to spend. They contribute to the current pensions of my parents and your grandparents. The economy benefits from their presence, and you benefit. In a larger society that is not aging so quickly, you may not have to work past the age of 70 (see Japan).
Should you stay? Should you go?
There is a temptation to leave the country on the Vistula River. Then you will be migrants yourself, you will quickly learn that people are different and equal, and Poles are not the crème de la crème of the global societies. We are just like others – we have the smart and the dumb, the decent and the flighty, the cheerful and the sad, the sick and the healthy. It’s like that in other countries, too. You will also learn that migrants are people like you – maybe you will learn that spreading panic and hatred against them is anti-human and unjustified. Besides, it won’t be easy for you abroad – you will be increasingly reluctant to call your old parents back home, you will wonder who take care of them. You will feel guilty. Ask the Portugese – they go through this already.
Note the separate queues for “EU” and “non-EU” travelers at airports. When you don’t like the idea of European solidarity on accepting refugees, remind yourself that Europe is about cooperation. Poland cannot forever be the nabby teenager in the European family. The country benefits a lot from the EU – railroads, highways, opportunities to study or work throughout Europe. But this family must be co-created. To think of others. To help each other. This is what solidarity is all about. It is impossible to take and not to give – or, it is not fair.
For the young, the climate change is something important, it seems. Even climate skeptics will get cold feet in 10-20 years when they can’t insure their house because of fire or flood hazards. Or when they will be repairing the roof of their house after a hurricane year after year. Since climate change interests you, while worrying about icebergs and skiing in the Alps (that will no longer be possible soon), think a bit more: in the next few years the Earth’s unhabitable areas will radically grow. The people who live there will have to move somewhere else. Their countries of origin are not (mostly) prosperous. Currently, climate migration is mostly the migration within one’s own country – but this will change. People will have no choice but to move somewhere, where they can survive. Whether we like it or not, with or without our consent – major migration movements are ahead of us globally. They will lead our direction. This needs to be managed. We need to find a way to solve a situation that no one has faced before at current scale – and let’s be frank a fence won’t help here. People will come. For sure. We need to remodel our world so that we are as comfortable together as possible.
How will it be?
Traveling will not be so easy. Many places will lose their charm. In the Red Sea, the coral reef is already bleaching. Greek islands are on fire and Hawaii – it won’t be so alluring anymore. In many places it will be too hot for sightseeing. It will be too dangerous in many others. The number of countries gripped by civil unrest will increase – climate change will cause more competition for basic goods, primarily water. There will be fewer long-distance trips for short periods of time – because more unforeseen phenomena will make predictable travel more difficult (an probably expensive). No more weekends in Paris or Madrid. In fact, we’re already going through this – who hasn’t recently cursed on a canceled flight?
When you are tempted by the idea of closing Poland off with four triggers, a wall, putting up feelers and barrels, remember that this always works both ways. It’s harder to get in. But it’s also much harder to leave. As unbelievable as it sounds today, it wasn’t that long ago that before going abroad you need to ask state’s permission to get a passport, one stood in line at the passport office. One would leave one’s identity card in pledge. I lived in a closed country – not so cool. And not safe at all. We admire Ukraine for how bravely it defends itself – but remember that men are now, as a rule, not allowed to leave. War also limits the rights of those who are fighting. On the rightest of sides.
Fencing ourselves off with a wall confines us. Living in confinement has significant drawbacks for the fenced-in – you can cut off wi-fi, you can delete roaming, you can eliminate access to FB, IG or whatever you want. You can, of course, strictly control what we do there (see China). Allowing oneself to be fenced off has nothing to do with freedom and liberty.
A state ruled by the method of conflict weakens. Yes, there is the old and proven “divide and rule” way, only it comes at the expense of the “subjects.” It leads to authoritarianism and taking people under the boot. That doesn’t quite fit your need for freedom, does it? Democracy has flaws, sure. Especially democracy in a poorly educated society. But by betting on the rule of force, you run the risk that governments will grab you by the throat when they lose respect for you. And they will lose for sure once they take you under that boot. Mankind has so far not invented a better method of providing people with a decent quality of life than democracy, and that democracy is based on respect for the other – even when we differ. Particularly when we differ. Nor has a better method of decision-making been invented than dialogue and cooperation. Where these are absent – someone suffers. And it’s naive to think that the sufferer won’t one day happen to be you. Taking away the rights of others always ultimately hits back on us, on our rights.
Supporting migration as I see it is not about opening the borders and seizing people from all over the world into Poland without restraint. It is about remembering that those who come are human beings – and they cannot be treated inhumanely. Neither in the Polish-Belarusian borderland, nor in a company in the middle of Poland, nor in an office or school.
We all have human dignity. We all have the right to happiness, security, to seek a good life. We are no better than migrants. Migrants are no better than us.
The best we can give each other is respect. Try to help each other. The whole secret of integration, community, social cohesion or whatnot is basically this: these others are humans. Our task is to get along with each other on how we can live together on this globe that we share.